SEAS Colloquium in Climate Science (SCiCS) | |||
| Date: | October 22, 2009 from 2:45 pm to 3:45 pm EDT | ||
| Location: | Columbia University Morningside Heights S.W. Mudd Building, Room Number 214 |
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| Contact: | For further information regarding this event, please contact APAM Department by sending email to seasinfo.apam@columbia.edu or by calling 212-854-4457. | ||
| Info: | Click Here to Visit Website. | ||
Clara Deser "Future Projections of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns: Mechanisms and Uncertainties" A 40-member ensemble of integrations under the SRES A1B forcing scenario for the period 2000-2061 has recently been completed using the Community Climate System Model, a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model. The unprecedented size of the ensemble allows for a robust characterization of the forced climate signal and its associated uncertainties. In this study, we focus on the simulated responses of the dominant modes of atmospheric circulation variability, including the Southern and Northern Annular Modes and the tropical Walker Circulation, to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone. We examine both the direct effects of the imposed radiative forcing as well as the indirect effects via changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice. In addition, we investigate the contribution of internal atmospheric processes to the uncertainties in future atmospheric circulation trends. Our results indicate that "weather noise" plays a dominant role in the ensemble spread of the simulated trends in the Annular Modes. Host: Lorenzo Polvani |
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