The Earth Institute's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) Division of Ocean and Climate Physics Seminar presents "Statistical Tropical Cyclone Model for the North Atlantic: SST and Landfall," with Timothy Hall, Senior Scientist, Atmospheric, Ocean and Climate Science, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.   Open to the public.

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A stochastic North-Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) model has been developed that includes sensitivity to SST and ENSO state. The track and genesis components are revised versions of components reported by Hall and Jewson (2007). The model includes a stochastic representation of Vmax, as the measure of intensity. All model components are based on National Hurricane Center HURDAT "best track" data. The model has been used to generate 1000s of realizations of the 1950-2008 period, as well as 1000s-years simulations in a number of fixed "climate states" (fixed values for SST and ENSO). Overall, the number of US landfalls rises with SST. However, the signal varies with geographic region and with intensity category.