The Climate Forecast Briefing will present the current and predicted ENSO status, the Climate Predictions for the upcoming months, and a discussion on the verifications of our previous forecasts.
In addition, Dr. Stewart-Ibarra, a Research Scientist and Latin America Research Program Coordinator for the Center for Global Health & Translational Science at SUNY Upstate Medical University will be presenting a talk entitled, "Developing a Dengue Early Warning System in Ecuador".
The IRI and the Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre are developing a disaster action alert tool for the Caribbean based on seasonal forecasts. After the briefing we invite folks to join us for a short play test of an interactive game we'll be running at ICCS3 to help identify forecast thresholds and actions for each alert level.
Abstract: Developing a Dengue Early Warning System in Ecuador
Dengue fever is a major emerging public health threat throughout the tropics and subtropics, including in the southern U.S. In countries such as Ecuador, dengue has replaced malaria as the most prevalent mosquito borne disease. No vaccine or treatment is currently available. Therefore, developing integrated climate-vector-virus surveillance systems is critical to be able to predict, prevent, and mitigate dengue outbreaks. To address this need, we have been investigating dengue transmission dynamics in southern coastal Ecuador in partnership with the Ministry of Health and National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology. I will share an overview of this work, which includes building surveillance capacity, statistical models to forecast dengue risk, field studies of vector and virus dynamics, and assessment of social-ecological risk factors.